After a long hiatus, The Beijing Office will continue publishing "polished machine translations" of material I find in my daily work.
I am a professional magpie of the Chinese-language media, rambling here and there, seizing glittering items and banging them through my translation engine.
Selected items will be intermittently buffed up and posted to another blog, This Week's Find's in Contemporary China. But some people may like to sniff these truffles which are largely in their native state...
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
Thursday, January 12, 2006
situation analysis and forecast of Chinese society, 2005-2006
Li Peilin:
2005-2006 Chinese society situation analysis and forecast*
介绍的是2005－2006恩年中国社会形势分析与预测。第一个问题关于今年社会发展的状况，以及今年发展中遇到的问题，最后关于明年发展趋势的预测。
I shall outline an analysis and forecast of the social situation in
第一个问题，想简单讲两句，这两天很多学者在谈经济的形势，我们经济已经连续三年高速增长，今年估计在9.3－9.4％之间，
The first question, to make two simple points, these two days very many scholars in discussing the economic situation, our economy already the continual three year high speed growths, this year estimated between 9.3-9.4%,
这样一个周期是改革开放以来第三次高速增长的周期，
this has been the third high speed growth cycle since reform and open policy,
所以从态势里面可以看到，改革开放经过了八三、八四、八五年，第二次又持续三年，第三次从2003年开始经济重新起动，到2005年又经历了三年，关键是关于明年的趋势现在有各种的议论，
We may see from this situation therefore the reform and open policy passed through for 83, 84, 85 years, second continues for three years, third time started the economy from 2003 to restart, also has experienced to 2005 for three years, the key is has each kind of discussion now about the next year tendency,
因为从过去两年的态势当中看到，每到第四年，增长就要大幅度的回落，所以关于明年的趋势现在争论比较大，但是我们课题组对明年经济增长还是抱有乐观的精神，认为仍然高达接近9％的增长速度。
Because saw from the past two years situation, whenever the fourth year, the growth wanted large scale receding, therefore now argues about the next year tendency quite in a big way, but our work group will hold the optimistic spirit to the next year economic growth, thought still reached as high as approaches 9% rate of rise.
第二和谐社会的建设取得明显的进展，大家知道今年总书记提出构建社会主义和谐社会以后，
The second harmonious society's construction makes the distinct progress, everybody knew this year general secretary proposed constructs after the socialism harmonious society,
各种具体政策都在落实这样一个思想，认为和谐社会的建设，
each kind of concrete policy all is carrying out this kind of thought, thinks harmonious social the construction,
不但对治理现在社会中出现的问题有益处的，而且对维持经济的持续发展也是有好处的，
Not only to governs the question which in the present society appears to have the profit, moreover to maintains the economy to continue the development also to have the advantage,
因为这和扩大消费，防止经济过分依赖于投资和出口各方面都有密切的关系。
because this and the expansion expends, prevented the economy relies on excessively in invests and exports various aspects all to have close relationship.
今年本来在五年之内取消农业税，现在两年之内全国28个省取消农业税，
This year originally cancels the agricultural tax within five years, now within two years the national 28 provinces cancellations agricultural tax,
有一些省降低农业税的税率，包括年底要陆续出台调整土地征用价格，解决拖欠农民工工资，
has some provinces to reduce the agricultural tax the tax rate, must appear including the year's end to adjust the land one after another to take over for use the price, solving payment arrears in mingong wages,
扩大农村困难家庭两减一免，完善城市低保，扩大农村低保试点，
as soon as expands the countryside difficult family two to reduce exempts, the perfect city guarantees lowly, expands the countryside to guarantee the experiment site lowly,
非公企业中成立工会，加强中央和省级权力部门的审计监督。
in the non-public enterprise forms the trade union, strengthens the central committee and the provincial level authority department's audit surveillance.
第三方面人们生活水平逐步提高，现在城镇的收入仍然和GDP的速度几乎相当的，扣除物价因素以后，实际增长9.8％，
The third aspect people living standard enhances gradually, now cities income still with GDP speed nearly suitable, deducts after the price factor, grows actually 9.8%,
农民现金收入增长快于城市，但是农民人均纯收入今年仍然可以达到5.8％－6％，比去年低一些，
the peasants cash income grows quickly in the city, but peasants average per person net income still might achieve 5.8%-6% this year, lowered some compared to last year,
但仍然是近十年来第二个高增长的年份，因为今年农民收入情况和去年有不同的情况，今年粮食价格有较大幅度的回落，去年农民收入增长很大的条件就是粮食价格大幅度上涨，
But still was the near for ten year second high growth year, because this year peasants received the situation and last year have the different situation, this year grain price has great scope for receding, a major condition for peasants income growing last year was the large scale rise in grain prices,
所以今年食品价格上涨3.3，同比回落了7.6百分点，粮食价格回落26个百分点，
hence this year food prices rose 3.3%%, the same ratio receded 7.6 percentage points, the grain price recedes 26 percentage points,
今年中央一再提到，要保证农民的收入，今年仍然有一个较高的增长所以国家在这方面投入也由转移支付方面加大了力度。
Central repeatedly mentioned this year that, must guarantee peasants' income, this year still had a high growth therefore the country invested in this aspect has also increased dynamics by the shift payment aspect.
另外储蓄方面，最近几年储蓄都是连续增长超过GDP增长一倍以上，
Moreover the deposit aspect, several annual savings all were recently grows continuously surpasses GDP to grow above one time,
所以城乡居民储蓄余额今年将突破14万亿元，几乎和GDP总量差不多，
therefore the city and countryside inhabitant will deposit remaining sum to top 14 trillion Yuan this year, will be nearly similar with the GDP total quantity,
所以人均储蓄已经超过1万元，现在不是老百姓没有钱，实际上农民消费遇到障碍就是收入过低，
Therefore the average per person deposit already surpassed 10,000 Yuan, now was not the common people does not have the money, in fact the peasants expended meet the barrier are receive excessively lowly,
而城市里面主要因为社会保障各个方面，预期的消费不稳定，以后看病、养老，孩子以后上学变得不稳定以后，造成老百姓储蓄欲望比较强烈，
while in the city because of various aspects of social security, anticipated expense is unstable, after later will see a doctor, cares for the aged, the child will later go to school become unstable, intensifying the common people’s desire to save,
有点钱都作为家庭风险的储蓄，而不愿意投入消费。
a little the money all took the family risk the deposit, but was not willing to invest the expense.
第四关于就业紧张的局面现在有所环节。
Fourth has a link now about the employment tense aspect.
因为今年估计新增就业人员在960万人，由于每年有2400万人需要寻找工作，
Because this year estimated increases the employment personnel in 9,600,000 people, because every year has 24,000,000 people to need to seek the work,
所以每年仍然有1千多万人难以解决就业问题，就业和再就业的的重点就是这样几部分人，一个是体制转轨遗留的下岗失业人员，
therefore still had more than 10 million people to solve the employment problem with difficulty every year, employment and re-employment was such several parts of people with emphasis, one was the system switcher leaves behind comes off sentry duty the unemployed person,
本来计划三年之内实行下岗和失业的并轨，现在十几个省份取消国有企业再就业中心，新的失业人员直接进入失业领域，不再经过下岗的过渡，在若干省份由于这问题存在比较多，
Plans within for three years to implement originally comes off sentry duty with the unemployment and the axle, now several provinces cancellations state-owned enterprise re-employment center, the new unemployed person directly enters the unemployment domain, no longer the process comes off sentry duty transition, in certain provinces because this question exists quite much,
所以下岗失业人员仍然有一部分遗留，所以这部分人再就业问题还是关注的重点，
Therefore came off sentry duty the unemployed person still to have a part to leave behind, therefore this part of person re-employment the key point which the question paid attention, a
再就是重组改制关闭破产企业职工，这样在全国还有3、400万人，另外城市新增劳动力，
gain was the reorganization changes the system the closure bankruptcy enterprise staff, like this also had 34 million people in the nation,
尤其高校毕业生，每一年除了要解决已经失业的人员就业，每一年新到劳动年龄的人口，
moreover the city increased the labor force, the university graduates, each year except wanted to solve the personnel employment especially which already was unemployed, each year newly arrived working age population,
增加数每年还在增长，特别高校毕业生这两年增长比较快，
the increase of numbers also was growing every year, special university graduates these two years growth quite was quick,
今年高校毕业生达到340万，去年280万，前年只有150、160万，由于扩招以后毕业生进入就业的年龄，所以他们就业显得比较紧张，还有进城务工人员的问题。
The university graduates achieve this year 3.4 million, last year 2.8 million, year before last only then 1.5 to 1.6 million because will expand incurs the later graduate to enter the employment the age, therefore they will get employed appear quite anxiously, but also will have enters a city the work personnel's question.
现在劳动力转移的态势继续呈积极方向，所以全国农村外出经商务工劳动力达到1.2亿，跨省的达到6千万人。
Now the labor force shift situation continues to assume the positive direction, therefore the national countryside egresses does business the work labor force to achieve 120,000,000, cross province achieves 60,000,000 people.
第五城市化和社区建设加快，城市化地产的推动对各地GDP增长有很大的力量，
The fifth urbanization and the community construct speed up, the urbanized real estate impetus has the very big strength to each place GDP growth,
很多主要的城市现在房地产交易费用，收入已经达到了GDP和财政收入的1/4，所以宏观调控对一些高度依赖房地产城市影响比较大，
very many main cities the real estate transaction expense, the income already have achieved GDP and the financial revenue now 1/4, therefore the macroeconomic regulation and control relies on the real estate city influence to some quite to be big highly,
所以在一些发达地方，宏观调控政策也受到一些微辞，但是从宏观稳定来讲，中央还是稳定房地产发展，对于维持经济的平衡，不使经济出现过去那样大起大落有重要作用的。
Therefore in some developed places, the macroeconomic regulation and control policy also receives some weiled criticisms, but from macroscopic stabilizes says, the central stable real estate development, regarding the maintenance economy balance, does not cause the economy to appear such major rises and falls to have the vital role.
现在城市化的速度正处在加速的过程当中，所以2005年城市化水平已经达到43％，从最近五年的城市化水平，年均每年提高1.4百分点，
Now the urbanized speed is occupying in the middle of the acceleration process, therefore in 2005 the urbanized level already achieved 43%, from the recent five years urbanized level, the yearly average enhanced 1.4 percentage points every year,
而过去1990年到2000年十年当中每年只能提高1个百分点，如果城市化水平达到50％，按照现在的速度，到2010年整个城市化水平就会超过50％。
But passed ten years every year only to be able to enhance 1 percentage point 1990 to 2000, if the urbanized level achieved 50%, according to the present speed, the entire urbanized level can surpass 50% to 2010.
另外最近一年高度关注社区建设，社会管理方式正发生从单位组织到社区的转变，
Moreover the recent year pays attention to the community to construct highly, the social management way is occurring from the unit organizes to community's transformation,
过去社会管理通过国有的单位发文件，落实社会事务，现在单位正在解体，各种新的就业部门在产生，
in the past the social management issued the document through the state-owned unit, the realization social affair, now the unit is disintegrating, each kind of new employment department was producing,
所以国家在设想，通过社区居住领域建立新的社会管理的系统，
Therefore the country in the tentative plan, establishes the new social management through the community housing domain the system,
所以在社区里面可以看到社区居委会的人员不是过去的老太太，现在很多比较年轻文化程度也提高。
Therefore may see inside the community residents' committee the personnel was not past old woman, now very are many the quite young years of schooling also to enhance.
但是现在出现新的问题是什么，现在一方面是社会事务在增多，本来基层应该加强，
But the present has the new problem is any, on the one hand now is the social affair is increasing, the original basic unit should strengthen,
但是整个财政体系往上集中，到基层财政不足，所以现在提出重建基层财政，全国村委会和居委会大幅度减少。
But the entire fiscal system upward concentrates, is insufficient to the basic unit finance, therefore the present proposes the reconstruction basic unit finance, national village committes and residents' committee large scale reduction.
第六社会主义新农村建设正式启动，到明年要完全完成取消农业税任务，
The sixth socialism new rural reconstruction official start, will have to complete the cancellation agricultural tax task completely to the next year,
农民纯收入要保持年均增长5％以上，这对我们还是一个非常艰巨的任务，
The peasants net income must maintain the yearly average to grow above 5%, this to us is an extremely arduous duty,
因为现在中国土地很少，种植业对农民收入贡献越来越小所以提高农民纯收入要大幅度依靠农民兼业，来自现金收入的增长，才能使农民收入真正增长，
Because the present China land are very few, the crop production receives the contribution to the peasants to be more and more small therefore enhances the peasants net income to have to depend upon the peasants large scale concurrently industry, comes from the cash income growth, can cause the peasants to receive the true growth,
这点土地光靠种那么点粮食根本没有办法和国际上其他的农业大户进行竞争，
This land depends totally on planting that bit of grain has simply no way of competing with on the international other agricultural wealthy and powerful families carries on the,
包括新农村的建设，除了通水通电，通柏油路基础设施的建设，
including the new countryside construction, apart from connecting to water and electricity, sealed roads, infrastructure etc.,
还要在医疗方面扩大农村的新型合作医疗，完善农村义务教育制度，扩大农村养老试点，探索农村低保制度。
Also must expand the countryside in the medical aspect the new cooperative medical treatment, perfect the rural compulsory education system, expand aged care pilot sites, explore the rural minimum guarantee system.
要随着社会主义新农村建设要出现一个比较大的改观。
Must have to appear a quite big having a new look along with the socialism new rural reconstruction.
我们看到农民收入从1980年到2005年，虽然最近有较高速度的增长，但是1997年到2003年农民年均收入增长没有超过4％。
We saw the peasants income from 1980 to 2005, although had recently compared the high velocity the growth, but the peasants yearly average income grew 1997 to 2003 has not surpassed 4%.
已经完全背离人均GDP的增长，和城镇人均可支配收入的增长。
Already completely departed from average per person GDP the growth, average per person might control the income with the cities the growth.
所以贫富差距拉大对改变消费不利的，我们要扩大内需很重要要改变农村的状况。
Therefore the gap between rich and poor enlarges to changes the expense disadvantageously in, we must expand must very important have to change the countryside the condition.
第七人口面临新的转型，最近新生婴儿不断减少，
The seventh population faced with new reforming, the newborn baby unceasingly reduced recently,
这比预期速度要快得多，每年新增人口从80年代1600万，90年代1200万，到现在700多万，现在和过去人口增长情况完全不一样了，在八十年代的时候，
This must be much quicker than the anticipated speed, increases the population every year from the 80's 16,000,000, the 90's 12,000,000, to the present more than 700 ten thousand, now and the past population growth situation is completely dissimilar, in 80 ages times,
国际上流传一句话，中国每年生一个加拿大，死一个葡萄牙净增一个澳大利亚，
a saying spread internationally, “
现在情况完全改观了，造成了新的问题，孩子快速下降，会不会使我们人口的劳动力供给产生问题？
now the situation completely has had a new look, created the new problem, the child dropped fast, could cause our population the labor force supplies to have the question?
所以劳动力出现新的特征，劳动力供给方面虽然处于增长过程，但是这个过程到2015到2016年就会结束，
Therefore the labor force appears the new characteristic, although the labor force supplies aspect is in the growth process, but this process to can end 2015 to 2016,
所以劳动力充分供给的时间也不会延太长。
Therefore the labor force full supplies time cannot extend too long.
但是已经出现了，劳动力从无限供给转向总量供大于求的结构性短缺并存。
But already appeared, the labor force changes the property from the infinite supplies which the total quantity supply exceeds demand to coexist structural shortage.
所以农民工短缺已经蔓延到很多的城市和地方。
Therefore the peasant laborer short already spread to very many cities and the place.
家庭小型化对传统家庭养老方式形成一个挑战。
The family miniaturization cares for the aged the way to the traditional family to form a challenge.
看人口结构，过去由于建国初期实行鼓励生育的政策，低龄儿童增长很快，
Looked the population structure, as a result of the early years of the new nation implementation encouragement birth policy, the low age child grew in the past very quickly,
70年代初期开始实行计划生育，人口底座开始减少，2000年已经是劳动力为主的结构，2005年进行千分之一人口小普查，
the 70's initial period started to implement the birth control, the population foundation start to reduce, in 2000 already was the labor force primarily structure, in 2005 carried on 1/1000 population small general surveys,
现在底座减少比我们预想的要，与此同时家庭结构也在变化，也就是家庭的小型化，
Now the foundation reduces wanting which expected compared to us, at the same time the family structure also in changes, also is the family miniaturization,
在整个国家当中，城市已经三人为主，在农村里面也是四人、三人为主，而两人户这两年快速上升，包括空巢家庭，
In the country as a whole, the cities primarily are three people, in the countryside also was four or three people primarily, but two-person households these two years rise fast, including empty-nest family,
还有单亲家庭，以及推迟育龄，由于买房子要晋级要学习所以推迟育龄。
but also have the single-parent family, as well as postpone the child-bearing age, because buy the house to have to be promoted must study therefore postpone the child-bearing age.
这种结构变化在国际上其他国家也出现过，但是对我们威胁是什么？
This kind of structural change has also appeared in other countries but what is the threat to us?
就是养老体制，现在养老体制只能覆盖整个水平15％，城市里面只能覆盖40％多，绝大部分人都依赖传统的养老体制，
Is cares for the aged system, now the aged care system only to be able to cover the entire level 15%, inside the city only can cover 40%, the major part people all rely on the tradition to care for the aged the system,
但是传统养老体制，过去之所以没有出现问题，主要过去家庭结构是正金字塔型的，上面一个爷爷奶奶生三四个孩子，
But the tradition cares for the aged the system, in the past the reason that has not had the problem, the main past family structure was pyramid, above grandfather paternal grandmother lived 34 children,
所以庞大的底座供应上面，现在家庭慢慢倒过来，一对独生子女上面四个爸爸妈妈，上面一群爷爷奶奶，
On the contrary therefore above huge foundation supply, now family slowly, pair of only child above four father and mother, above group of grandfathers paternal grandmother,
所以这体制很难维持，包括现在在农村要加快实行农村低保，尽管钱很少，但是这方面要预先做准备，实行一种可以操作的保障制度。
Therefore this system is very difficult to maintain, must speed up including the present in the countryside implements the countryside to guarantee lowly, although the money are very few, but this aspect needs to prepare in advance, practices safeguard system which one kind may operate.
第二方面讲一下今年发展中面临主要问题，一个是农村基层财政薄弱影响公共服务能力。
The second aspect says for this year to develop faced with the main question, one is the countryside basic unit finance weak influence public serviceability.
现在全国中央好于省里，省好于地市、地市好于县，县好于乡镇。
Now national central good Yu Shengli, province good in place city, city good in county, county good in villages and towns.
由于农业税取消以后，乡镇基本上没有财政的来源，乡镇现在变得没有公共服务能力，而这样一来，就要想一些办法，特别发现土地变更用途成为增长财政的重要来源，
Because after agricultural tax cancellation, the villages and towns basically do not have the financial resources, they are now deprived of public service capability, but as the matter stands, must think some means, discovered specially the land change use becomes the growth finance the important origin,
所以在土地变更用途方面，积极性比较高，但这样一来带来了，土地的城市化远远快于农民的市民化，把土地城市化了，
Therefore in the land change use aspect, the enthusiasm quite is high, but has as the matter stands brought, the land urbanization quickly in peasants' resident, has urbanized by far the land,
但是没有解决农民入城以后就业、住房和社会保障的问题，出现4千多万失地农民问题，最近很多都是失地农民引起的矛盾，包括今年大家清楚的保定事件，出现死人伤人的事件，
But has not solved the peasants to enter the city later the employment, the housing and the social security question, appears more than 4000 ten thousand loses the peasants question, recently very were many all loses the contradiction which the peasants caused, including this year everybody clear Baoding event, appears the event which the deceased person offended somebody,
最近在广东因为征地发生军警开枪大的群体性事件，这些问题都说明怎么从加强基层财政入手，解决当前深层的感群冲突。
Recently in
第二贫富差距仍在扩大，城乡差距短期内很难逆转，所以现在提出包括建设社会主义新农村也是希望遏制住继续扩大的势头很不容易了，别想这东西怎么缩小，遏制进一步扩大的势头，包括地区之间产业集群是一个新的现象，本来希望地区差距出现梯度推进，东部发展到中部到西部。
The second gap between rich and poor still in expanded, in the city and countryside disparity short-term very difficult to reverse, therefore the present proposed also was the tendency which the hope contained continues to expand is not very easy including the construction socialism new countryside, do not think how this thing did reduce, the containment further expanded the tendency, including the area between the industrial colony was a new phenomenon, hoped originally the local disparity appeared the gradient advancement, the east develops middle to the west.
小平讲初期东部加快发展，中西部服从这个大局，但是一定时期以后可以使西部带动起来，要求东部服从第二个大局，
Xiaoping speaks eastern part the initial period to speed up the development, the mid-west obeys this general situation west, but the certain time might later cause to lead, the request east will obey the second general situation,
但是现在由于全球化的经济现象，使中国出现产业集群的现象，企业之间的竞争不仅仅是生产成本，管理成本，
But as a result of the globalization economic phenomena, causes
还在于能不能进入这个产业集群的网络圈子里面，共享网络里面信息资源，技术资源，还有销售网络等等。
Also lies in can enter this industrial colony inside the network circle, inside shared network information resource, technological resource, but also has sales network and so on.
直到现在尽管有生产要素地区差异，但是大量企业还是往圈子边上集中，这样一来使当初设想的区域格局没有实现，区域差距还在快速拉大。
Although until now had the element of production regional disparity, but the massive enterprises on concentrated toward the circle nearby, as the matter stands caused the region pattern which initially conceived not to realize, the region disparity fast was also enlarging.
从中国来讲一般讲差距，实际上还是讲收入差距，实际上掩盖的问题是现在财富差距比收入差距大得多，
Says from
因为收入差距最高和最低按照国家统计局数据10％最高人群和最低人群收入相差十倍，按照社科院的调查数据应该差一点，应该高达12倍，财产差距里面最大的是房产、金融资产和地产，最大是房产，房产最高20％和最低20％相差60多倍，
Because income disparity highest and lowest according to the State statistical bureau data 10% highest group is ten times higher than the lowest group, according to Social Science Institute's investigation data should almost, be supposed to reach as high as 12 times, inside the property disparity biggest is the real estate, the financial property and the real estate, is most greatly the real estate, the real estate is highest 20% and lowest 20% differs 60 multiple,
但是金融资产最集中的，67％以上金融资产掌握在20％最富裕人手里面，农民虽然有土地，但是不能带来财产收益，
But financial property most centralized, 67% above financial property grasp inside 20% wealthiest manpower, although the peasants have the land, but cannot bring the property income,
因为农民的土地既不能抵押也不能转卖，农民的房产算不算农民财产也有一个问题，因为农民房产是一个使用证，没有办法抵押贷款也没有办法转卖。
Because peasants' land already cannot mortgage cannot resell, did peasants' real estate calculate the peasants property also has a question, because the peasants real estate is certificate deed, does not have the means mortgage loan also not to have the means to resell.
由于国家没有财产的登记制度，所以现在没有一个部门能够详细掌握财产在我们国家每一个家庭的分布情况，但实际上，对财产的收入分配调整，按国际上的经验，应当比收入的调整更加有效，要通过税收、财政、社会保障等措施来调整这种差距，
Because the country does not have the property registration system, therefore a present department has not been able in detail to grasp the property in our country each family distributed situation, but in fact, to the property income assignment adjustment, according to the international on experience, must be more effective than the income adjustment, must through measures and so on tax revenue, finance, social security adjust this kind of disparity,
为什么要调整收入差距，现在还不是一个道义问题，或者公正的问题，和整个经济生产是联在一起的，消费边际是递减的，一个社会只有庞大的中等群体产生以后才能产生主流消费，越高收入消费比例占收入越少的，
Why has to adjust the income disparity, now is not a morality and justice question, or the just question, is unites with the entire economical production in the same place, the margin of consumption is decreases progressively, a society only then the huge medium community will have later to be able to have the mainstream to expend, the higher income expense proportion will account for the income few,
所以高收入增长不可能对消费有很大拉动，低收入虽然消费弹性高但是没有钱，消费受到收入钢性增长，这种情况持续下去就会造成结构性生产过剩，
Therefore the increase of high income not not impossibly to have to the expense draws very greatly, but although the low income the expense elasticity high does not have the money, expends receives the income steel growth, this kind of situation continues to be able to create the constitutive property overproduction,
现在城市里面很难找到一个东西马上生产可以大量赚钱的东西，比如电视机，现在卖不出去，你说不需要吗？
now inside the city very difficult to find the thing which a thing produces immediately may make money massively, for instance the television, cannot sell now, you said does not need?
中西部农村地区14寸黑白电视机还在用着。
The mid-west countryside area 14 inches monochrome sets are also using.
国内的主观认同，收入之所以大家在谈，还不是客观差距本身大小的问题，因为收入的经济系数，香港和我们差不多，
The domestic subjective approval, the income the reason that everybody was discussing, but also is not the objective disparity itself size question, because of income economical coefficient, Hong Kong and we almost,
但是到香港没有人和我们谈收入差距，也没有人认为香港收入差距是带来矛盾的问题，
But and we discusses the income disparity to Hong Kong nobody, also nobody thought the
这有一个主观上的认识，大家认为造成这个差距是公正还是不公正的，是什么原因拉开了差距，所以主观的看法对于解决这些矛盾关系很大，
This has a subjective on understanding, everybody thought creates this disparity is just or not just, was any reason has pulled open the disparity, therefore the subjective view regarding resolved these contradictions to relate very in a big way,
但是现在调查发现，主观认同出现阶层认同的普遍偏低，认为中层占46.9％，
But the present investigates the discovery, the subjective approval appears the social stratum approval universally somewhat low, thought the intermediate deck accounts for 46.9%,
这不仅低于发达国家还低于印度，认为下层14.6％，高于其他国家，印度人均GDP不到我们一半，印度穷人比中国多得多，
Not only this is lower than the developed country also to be lower than India, thought lower level 14.6%, are higher than other countries, Indian average per person GDP not to us one half, the Indian poor person are much more than China,
但是中国之所以出现这情况，在快速转型和收入差距快速拉大的时候对这个问题的看法上产生了很多歧义，
But
所以有人认为这差距是不公平的，客观上已经中层了，但是主观上认为自己偏低，差不多的人认为比自己高，所以这不是一个绝对剥夺问题，是相对的问题，这些情况出现不利于我们解决。
Therefore some people thought this disparity is unfair, on objective already intermediate deck, but on subjective thought oneself somewhat low, the similar person thinks compared to oneself high, therefore this is not one deprives the question absolutely, is the relative question, these situations appear do not favor us to solve.
所以中国贫富差距的趋势是什么？
So, what is the tendency of the gap between rich and poor in
由于劳动力无限供给，财富积累速度的加快，社会中间层新分化，腐败和地下经济的因素造成了差距在短时间内还有继续扩大的因素，不是说收入差距符不符合库茨涅兹曲线。
Because the labor force infinite supplies, wealth accumulation speed speeding up, the social intermediate level new differentiation, the corruption and the underground economy factor has created the disparity the factor which also has in the short time continues to expand, is not said the income disparity does conform to the storehouse tribulus alunite this curve.
主要是对贫富差距主观认识方面，在社会里面建立真正的社会公正观念是很重要的。
Mainly is to the gap between rich and poor subjective understanding aspect, establishes the true social justice idea inside the society is very important.
第三就业面临新的问题，一个出现了新失业人群，以前谈失业人群是40、50人员，这些人文化水平比较低，在劳动力市场竞争力比较薄弱，
The third employment faced with the new question, appeared the new unemployment crowd, before discussed the unemployment crowd is 40, 50 personnel, the cultural level of these people is quite low, quite is weak in the labor market competitive power,
由于那些人进入退休年龄，通过进入退休体制获得一定的保障最近几年新出现的问题，没有工作经验，
because these people enter the retirement age, through enters the retired system to obtain the question which the certain safeguard recent several years appear newly, does not have the work experience,
但到达劳动年龄以后，由于文化素质和市场竞争力出现失业问题，一个他们无法进入事业保险体制，另外很年轻，国家不能养他一辈子，
but arrives after the working age, because the cultural quality and the market competitive power have the unemployment problem, they are unable to enter the enterprise to insure the system, moreover very young, the country cannot raise him for a lifetime,
这些人按照其他国家的经验，如果这样人群多了以后对城市里安定带来一系列问题。
these people according to other national experiences, if such crowd many later to city inThe stability brings a series of questions.
另外就业面临结构性短缺并存，从今年开始，区域型的短缺、技术性短缺，技工短缺，年龄性短缺17到25岁短期，以及性别岗位，
Moreover the employment coexists short faced with the constitutive property, starts from this year, the region short, the technical nature is short, the mechanic is short, age short 17 to 25th short-term, as well as sex post,
特别年轻女工的短缺，这在各地比较明显，另外大学生的就业问题。
The specially young female worker's shortage, this quite is obvious in each place, moreover university student's employment question.
就业形势严峻主要是由于经济增长的就业弹性系数持续下降，也就是GDP每增长一个百分点能够带动的就业人数。
The employment situation stern mainly is because the economic growth employment elasticity coefficient continues to drop, also is GDP grows every time the employment population which a percentage point can lead.
由于大量使用技术和资本对劳动有一个排挤，过去80年代每增长一个百分点可以带动200多人就业，
Because uses the technology and the capital massively has one for the work to push aside, in the past the 80's every time grew a percentage point to be possible to lead more than 200 people to get employed,
现在只能产生100多人就业，所以这趋势还在持续。
now only can produce more than 100 people to get employed, therefore this tendency was also continuing.
劳动年龄人口的持续增长要延续到2016年，在这过程中要为新增长的劳动年龄人口提供劳动机会，国有企业的改革，以及农村剩余劳动力的进城求职都对进城是一个压力，
The working age population continues the growth to have to continue to 2016, must provide the work opportunity in this process for the new growth working age population, the state-owned enterprise's reform, as well as the countryside surplus labor force enters a city seeks employment all to enters a city is a pressure,
所以中国解决吃饭问题以后，下一步就是民生问题，这和社会的安定，社会消费的拉动整个有一连串的联系。
Therefore
所以现代社会结构向现代化转变经历三个转换点，一个产业结构转换点，非农产值上升到85％以上，这在2004年就完成了。
Therefore the modern social structure experiences three transformations spots to the modernized transformation, an industrial structure transformation spot, the non- agricultural production value rises to 85% above, this completed in 2004.
城乡结构转化点，城市人口上升到50％以上，预计2012－2013年完成，另外非农从业人员上升到70％。
The city and countryside structure inversion point, the urban population rises to 50% above, estimated 2012-2013 year completes, moreover the non- agriculture jobholders rise to 70%.
第四买房贵、上学贵、看病贵成为新的民生三大问题。
Fourth purchases homes expensively, goes to school expensively, sees a doctor expensively becomes the new livelihood of the people three major problems.
有一些群众语言给叫新的三座大山，我们在这方面由于今年粮食价格虽然大幅度回落，
Has some populace language for to call the new three mountains, we in this aspect because this year grain price although recedes large scale,
但是居住价格在下仍然上涨5.6％，房地产业因为多数开发商靠大量的贷款从事这个行业，开发高端的房产赢利空间大，
But the housing price still rose in under 5.6%, the real estate industry because the most developers depended on the massive loans to be engaged in this profession, developed Gao Duan the real estate profit space to be big,
所以愿意开发高端产业，但是高端消费人群相对比较少，
Therefore is willing to develop the high end industry, but high end expense crowd relative quite few,
所以房产建好以后空置现象比较多，中低群体虽然有需求，
Therefore the real estate will construct the later vacant phenomenon quite to be many, center low community although will have the demand,
但是房产价格太高无法进行扩展这方面的消费，所以买房子是很大的民生问题，
But the real estate price too is high is unable to carry on expands this aspect the expense, therefore buys the house is the very big livelihood of the people question,
另外教育和医疗这两年都在快速上涨，在农村里面疾病和教育成为新的贫困诱因，
moreover the education and medical these two years all fast is rising, disease and educate into the new impoverished cause inside the countryside,
今年大家讨论比较多是医疗体制改革和教育体制改革的微辞，
Everybody discussion quite are many this year is the medical service organizational reform and the education organizational reform weiled criticism,
如果不进行调整，不但影响整个消费结构，而且和事业单位改革造成一种不好的先例。
If does not carry on the adjustment, not only affects the entire consumption pattern, moreover reforms with the institution creates one kind of not good precedent.
第五，安全事故特别煤矿安全事故后果比较严重，今年1－8月份全国煤矿发生特大事故55起，死亡1194人，其中一次死亡30人以上的特别重大事故5起，死亡397人同比分别上升25％和148％。
Fifth, the security accident special coal mine security accident consequence quite is serious, 1 - in August nation coal mine has especially big accident 55 this year, died 1194 people, there were 5 specially significant accidents in which 30 or more people died, died 397 people with to compare rises separately 25% and 148%.
这个现象说明今年很多地方官员都牵涉到当中，不但发生新中年成立以来第二次大矿难，黑龙江七台河11.27矿难造成171人遇难。
This phenomenon showed this year very many places officials all involve, since not only has had the new middle age to be established the second big ore to be difficult, the Heilongjiang Qitaihe 11.27 ores difficult to create 171 people to die.
事故在一年之内这么集中的发生在建国以来还是很少有的。
Since the accident the such centralized occurrence has been very little has within a year in the founding of the nation.
第六高增长时期社会心态的问题，大家很关心，现在在宏观经济形势来看，从增长率通货膨胀率，居民收入的增长、失业率，现在是我们最近十几年来，宏观指标最好的年份之一，去年是非常好的，今年继续维持这个状态，
The sixth high growth time society point of view question, everybody is very nice, now looked in the macroscopic economical situation, from the rate of increment inflation rate, the inhabitant income growth, the unemployment rate, now is our recent for several years, one of macroscopic target best years, last year was extremely good, continues to maintain this condition this year,
但现在社会心态有时候和客观形势不太一样，并不是说宏观形势好了，满意度心态会变化，出现这种差异是因为我们心态由各种形式造成的，
But the present society point of view sometimes and the objective situation not too is same, did not mean the macroscopic situation has been good, the degree of satisfaction point of view can change, has this kind of difference is because our point of view creates by each form,
但是心态会影响很多的，所以可以看到今年以来网上舆论上对经济学家或者其他的相关很多类似问题出现了一些讨论都是比较带有情绪化的。
But the point of view can affect very much, therefore may see since this year on the net in the public opinion very have been many to the economist or other correlations the similar question to appear some discussions all is the comparison has the emotionalism.
从2000年2005年中国城乡居民总体生活满意度的曲线和经济增长的曲线完全不一样的，2003年恰恰是我们经济进入第三次增长高峰期，徘徊多年以后，重新快速增长的时候，满意度反而下降，
From 2000 in 2005 Chinese city and countryside inhabitant overall life degree of satisfaction curve and economic growth curve completely dissimilar, in 2003 was exactly our economy enters the third growth peak, paced back and forth after many years, again fast grew, the degree of satisfaction instead dropped,
而且今年又有所下降，这个情况分析，在现在收入差距扩大以后，居民生活状况，不是用平均数可以说明的，
Moreover this year also has the drop, this situation analysis, after present income disparity expansion, the inhabitant living condition, is not may show with the mean value,
现在平均数的增长掩盖了很多问题，因为收入增长的过程当中，上游的收入增长快，下游的收入增长慢，
Now the mean value growth has covered very many questions, because the income grows in the middle of the process, the upstream income grows quickly, the downriver income grows slowly,
但是这些年来，过去在2003年之前，价格多少年来没有什么变化，价格上涨很低，特别有些年价格是负增长，这些年虽然通货膨胀率不高，3％、2％，
but these years, in the past before 2003, the price for many years never changed, price rises were very low, some years price is specially a negative growth, although these years the inflation rate is not high, 3%, 2%,
但是分析一下可以发现，在2％、3％里面，增长最快是食品，比如2003年的时候，食品价格增长6％、7％，整个比一般的通货膨胀率高得多，
But analyzes may discover that, inside 2%, 3%, the growth is most quickly food, for instance 2003 time, food price grows 6%, 7%, entire is much higher than the general inflation rate,
而这样一个增长一般的中产阶层感受不知道，因为说句实话，肉涨多少，蛋涨多少，你食品消费占整个消费的比例中产以上只有30％多，
But this kind of growth common middle class feeling did not know, because said the sentence truth, the meat rises how many, the egg rises how many above, your food expense occupies the entire expense in the proportion to produce only then more than 30%,
但是对于低收入家庭，恩格尔系数可以高达60％多，这样一个群体在社会里面还是比较庞大的群体，
But regarding the low income family, the Engel coefficient may reach as high as 60%, this kind of community inside society quite huge community,
所以他们满意度的下降会影响到整个社会满意度的下降，但是分类就可以看到，大家对住房的满意度，由于这两年住房条件的改善，满意度在增加，
Therefore their degree of satisfaction drop can affect the entire social degree of satisfaction drop, but classifies may see, everybody to the housing degree of satisfaction, as a result of these two years housing condition improvement, the degree of satisfaction is increasing,
但是对个人职业的满意度，以及个人经济满意度总体上是下降的。
But to individual occupation degree of satisfaction, as well as in the personal economy degree of satisfaction overall is the drop.
下降最大的整体来说对国家国际地位、国家经济发展水平，社会变革预期还是提高的，
Drops the biggest whole to say to the national international standing, the state economy level of development, the society transforms anticipated enhances,
但是对物价承受能力非常脆弱，再一个关于社会治安安全感的下降，也对满意度产生很大的影响。
But is extremely frail to the price bearing capacity, another about social order security sense drop, also has the very tremendous influence to the degree of satisfaction.
最后讲一下关于2006年社会发展的几个趋势，一个预期经济高速增长周期将超过三年，打破过去到第四年一定要掉下来的状况，要具体分析可以发现，对经济增长不利的因素和有利因素同时存在的，
Finally talk about several tendencies social development in 2006, an anticipated economical high speed growth cycle will surpass for three years, will break the condition which will certainly have to fall to the fourth year, will need to analyze specifically may discover, will simultaneously exist to the economic growth disadvantageous factor and the favorable factor,
比如钢铁，今年已经跌到1600块钱，有些行业里面生产过剩造成物品积压，和很多后果看出来了，同时要关注到出口还是比较强劲的，投资还在增长，
For instance the steel and iron, already fell this year to 1600 dollars, inside some professions overproduction created the goods backlog, looked with very many consequences, has simultaneously had to pay attention quite strongly to the exportation, the investment was also growing,
而且消费进入了第三次消费的高潮，第一次消费拉动经济是靠解决吃住，第二次家用电器进入千家万户，
Moreover expended entered the high tide which third time expended, the first expense drew the economy depends on the solution food and lodging, the second domestic electric appliances entered everyone,
第三次靠住房、汽车、通信、旅游、教育等等方面拉动第三次的消费，
third time depended on housing, automobile, correspondence, traveling, education and so on aspects draws the third expense,
而且推动经济增长力量里面民间资本的力量比过去大得多，市场已经成为基础性的资源配置方式，所以共和国表面看来存在很多问题，
Moreover inside the impetus economic growth strength the folk capital strength was much bigger than the past, the market already became the foundational resources disposition way, therefore the republic surface looked like existence very many questions,
但是深层充满了活力，千百万人的脑袋被开动起来，尽管竞争非常残酷，但是还是有很多聪明的人在寻找各种投资的机会，所以预计明年经济增长仍然维持到接近9％的增长速度。
But in -depth has been full of the energy, billion human of heads are started, although competes extremely brutally, but has very many intelligent people to seek each kind of investment the opportunity, therefore estimate next year the economic growth still will maintain approaches 9% rate of rise.
社会发展也将呈现新的气象，主要中央提出构建社会主义和谐社会以后，包括社会主义事业的改革，在社会发展方面的投入，
The social development will also present the new meteorology, main central proposed will construct after the socialism harmonious society, including socialism enterprise reform, in social development aspect investment,
主要通过这个进一步扩大内需，因为我们看到这两年经济虽然维持高度增长，
In mainly further expands through this needs, because we see these two years economy although maintains grows highly,
但是比较过分依赖投资和外贸出口，经济对外贸依存度高达70％以上，这是历史上最高点，但是国际上外贸又是非常不稳定的状态，一个大国不能长期把宝都押在这上面，
But the quite excessive dependant investment and the foreign trade exportation, the economy reaches as high as above 70% to the foreign trade degree of dependancy, this is in the history the peak, but on the international foreign trade also is extremely the unstable condition, a great nation cannot valuable all detain for a long time above this,
所以从长远来看要扩大内需，内需不可能一下子全部启动，通过社会发展和经济的协调，能够逐步把内需启动起来。
In therefore must expand in the long-range view needs, in needs is impossible completely to start all of a sudden, through the social development and the economical coordination, can have to start gradually in.
第三要建设社会主义新农村的步伐将进一步加快，本来以为城乡差距是客观的趋势，是无法改变的趋势，
Third will have to construct the socialism new countryside the step further to speed up, thought originally the city and countryside disparity will be the objective tendency, is tendency which will be unable to change,
但是现在从韩国的经验来看，韩国新村经验来看，可能现在已经到了一个时候，有能力扭转城乡差距进一步扩大的趋势，
But looked now from
按国际经验，农村务农劳动力要下降30％以下这个社会才能有足够的财力和实力改变农村的状况，
According to the international experience, the countryside works at farming the labor force to have to drop 30% below this society to be able to have the enough financial resource and the strength changes the countryside the condition,
现在劳动力的比重当中，主要靠农业生产维持的劳动力占46％，
now in the middle of the labor force proportion, mainly depends on the agricultural production maintenance the labor force to account for 46%,
现在还不到这个时候，但是现在因为中央已经提出来要以城带乡，以工促农，所以在这样一个形势下农村情况会有一个较大的改观。
Now also this time, but present because central already raised must by the city belt township, pressed the agriculture by the labor, therefore the countryside situation could have a big having a new look under this kind of situation.
第四劳动力市场从无限供给走向结构性短缺并存的现象，在2006年更加明显，本来大家在讨论农民工短缺现象究竟是暂时的，
The fourth labor market moves towards the phenomenon from the infinite supplies which the constitutive property coexists short, is more obvious in 2006, actually is everybody discussing the peasant laborer short phenomenon is originally temporary,
还是由于劳动关系的紧张，农民收入的增长，造成农民不愿意外出了，
As a result of work relations anxiety, the peasants income growth, created the peasants not to be willing to egress,
还是总供给上确实发生问题，现在看来，结束劳动力无限供给趋势的时间，拐点比预想来得早得多，
Always supplies on gives rise to the problem truly, now looked like, the conclusion labor force infinite supplies tendency time, the inflection point expected is much earlier than,
因为以前没有预想到这情况，生育的下降速度降很多，现在文化素质的提高，社会流动加快，孩子抚养成本的提高，越来越多人不愿意多生育孩子，
Because before had not expected this situation, the birth drop speed drop are very many, now the cultural quality enhancement, social mobility speeds up, the child fosters the cost the enhancement, more and more many people are not willing to give birth the child,
这造成一个情况，孩子下降率太快了，去年一年当中全国3万多所小学消失了，
This created a situation, the child descending rate too has been quick, middle a year the national more than 30,000 elementary schools have vanished last year,
因为小学招不进学生来，所以很多学生干脆改成养老院，因为老人会增多。
because the elementary school incurred does not go to school since birth, very many students altered to the old folks home simply, because the kind of group life insurance increased.
所以孩子减少和老人增加将对消费市场和养老方式产生深远的影响。
Therefore the child reduction and the old person will increase and care for the aged the way to the expense market to have the profound influence.
容易挣的钱要么是小孩、要么是女人的钱，这没有一个理性计算的，现在看来孩子的减少老人增加会对消费市场产生影响，
Easy to make the money or is the child, either is woman's money, this does not have a rational computation, now looked like the child the reduced old person increases can have the influence to the expense market,
因为老人的旅游老人各种福利，各种其他方面会对消费市场产生深远的影响。
Because of old person's traveling old person each kind of welfare, each kind of other aspects can have the profound influence to the expense market.
第六我们提出了大学的扩张潜伏着财务的风险，因为有的没有注意这个问题，
Sixth we proposed university's expansion ambush finance risk, because some has not paid attention to this question,
因为这些年来，大学连续扩张，大学扩张圈地，从1千多所大学到2千多所，这些大学在扩张，以抵押贷款和学校信用的形式借了大量的钱，
Because of these years, the university expands continuously, the university expansion circle place, from more than 1000 universities to more than 2000 institutes, these universities is expanding, the mortgage loan and the school credit form has borrowed the massive money,
这些钱很有可能演变成国有企业的问题，借钱的问题没有准备还钱的，
These money have the possibility to evolve the state-owned enterprise very much the question, lends money question preparation also money,
因为干个大学生干几年，是单位借钱没有想到这钱自己来还，
Because does a university student to do for several years, is the unit lends money had not thought this money come also,
但是从今年以来已经在若干所大学出现不仅还本的问题，利息都还不上，
Not only but has already had the problem since this year in certain universities' which repays principal, the interest cannot return,
因为大学不是赢利部门，所以现在提出大学会不会破产？
Because the university is not the profit department, therefore the present proposed the university can go bankrupt?
要不破产这些钱最后又变成银行的贷款，银行不良债务，过去还有一个机制，国家财政托底，成立资产处理公司，把这钱剥离出来再处理，现在银行慢慢要上市了，国家托底了，
Or goes bankrupt these money finally to turn bank the loan, the bank not good debt, in the past also had a mechanism, the national finance butt buffer, the be established property processing company, stripped this money the rehandling, now the bank slowly had to go on the market, national butt buffer,
因为这些钱都是老百姓的储蓄，那谁来还？
Because these money all are common people's deposits, that who comes also?
就会转变财务和金融的风险，这问题虽然没有人说，
Can transform financial and the financial risk, although this question nobody said,
但是要引起警惕，因为银行不愿意往企业投资，因为企业风险大，责任大，大学国家说发展教育，形成不良资产责任不大，但实际一回事。
But must arouse vigilance, because the bank is not willing to invest toward the enterprise, because the enterprise risk is big, the responsibility is big, the university country said the development education, forms not the good property responsibility not to be big, but actual identical.
第七关于反腐败反贿赂的制度化建设将进一步加快，从明年1月1号开始全国检查机关建成行贿犯罪档案查询系统，
Seventh further will speed up about the counter-corruption counter- bribe institution construction, 1 will start the national inspection institution from the next year January to complete bribes the crime file inquiry system,
这是全国联网的，以前把贪污犯罪重点放在干部本身，社会这一方查处这个问题，
This is the national networking, before places with emphasis the embezzlement crime cadre itself, social this side investigates this question,
现在考虑到光这一方不行，还有行贿的那一方，一旦发现行贿以后，成为污点以后，就要进入这个系统，
Now considered light this side is not good, but also has that side which bribes, once after discovered bribes, becomes after the stain, must enter this system,
这个系统是市场准入的一个屏障，一旦出现污点想在另一个地方重新进入市场都要受到阻碍，这对反腐败反贿赂进一步制度化可以发挥作用的。
This system is a market access barrier, once appears the stain to want to enter the market in another place all to have to receive the hindrance, this may play the role to the counter-corruption counter- bribe further institution.
最后对未来五年的展望将成为突出的社会热点，不光明年是十一五规划开始的年份，因为2007年将进行十七大，
Finally a prominent social hot spot in the coming five years forecast, not only the next year will be a year which the 11th Five Year Plan will start, because in 2007 will carry on the 17 National Party congress,
所以各地从明年开始就要进行换届，还有一系列的改革问题，过去有人研究经济增长的曲线和政治曲线有一些相关的关系，
Therefore each place will start from the next year to have to carry on changes session, but also will have a series of reforms question, in the past some people studied the economic growth the curve and the political curve have some related relations,
在中国经济当中，政府的作用仍然很大的，包括各种改革大家比较关注，特别在医疗、教育、金融等几个领域的改革，这些年来到底最后的方向是什么？
in the Chinese economy, government's role is still quite large, reformed everybody comparison attention including each kind, in the medical service, the education, how many domains reform the finance and so on, these years arrived the bottom final direction is specially what?
还有更多的关注。
Also has more attention.
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